12.14.2004

Henry Blodgett's take on investing.

From Slate. Perhaps apropos of the social security debate?:

"People's natural tendency...is to view the conclusions of behavioral finance theorists as yet another indication of how dumb everyone else is rather than how handicapped we all are as we try to outwit the market and each other. But the biggest lie of the 1990s—the biggest lie of every bull market—is that investing is so easy that anyone can do it, that all you have to do to win is play. The reality, of course, is that only a tiny handful of people are dedicated and talented enough to overcome their DNA, confront the long odds, and come out ahead of the market averages, and they are as rare as world-class athletes. As for the rest of us, we may have fun trying (and this, in and of itself, is enough reason to play), but, alas, we are almost sure to lose."

And this, in and of itself, is enough reason to play? With one's money? No thanks. Delicious treats his money like a draft horse and is conservative, and, while it meant he had to spend 1999 in rooms hearing other comedy writers boast about Qualcomm, it also meant that he had to spend 2001 in rooms hearing other comedy writers bemoan Qualcomm. Either way, he got home late -- which wasn't my original point, but what's a blog for?

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